Speculation around Tim Cook’s future is intensifying inside and outside Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.68% ) . According to The Information, senior Apple executives increasingly believe Cook may be nearing the end of his run — chatter that followed a Financial Times report last month suggesting he could leave as early as next year. Bloomberg later pushed back, saying succession work is underway but not imminent. Across reports, hardware chief John Ternus remains the leading internal candidate.
Prediction markets are now putting real money behind those guesses. On Polymarket, traders assign an 18 percent chance that Cook steps down by March 31, down sharply from more than 50 percent late last month. As for who’s next, Ternus leads with a 56 percent implied probability, followed by software head Craig Federighi at 18 percent and marketing chief Greg Joswiak at just over 10 percent.
Kalshi is even more bullish on Ternus, giving him a 74 percent chance of taking the top job. Its traders see a 48 percent chance that Cook leaves by 2027, with 17 percent betting it could happen as soon as July.