Stocks wrapped a chaotic November with a last-minute sprint, as the S&P 500 $SPX ( ▲ 0.19% ) and Dow $DJIA ( ▲ 0.09% ) erased their monthly losses in the final session. The Nasdaq $COMPQ ( 0.0% ) was the lone holdout, down 1.8 percent, snapping a seven-month win streak. Speculative pockets of the market saw deeper damage as high-short-interest names and crypto, including bitcoin $BTC.X ( ▲ 1.77% ) , cratered mid-month before clawing back a portion of the losses.
Market nerves are still elevated. The VIX $VIX ( ▼ 2.34% ) sits above its long-term average, the Fear and Greed Index is stuck in “extreme fear,” and investors are watching whether the early-December return to normal trading volume confirms the late-month rebound. Analysts say the concerns that weighed on markets in November, from AI-trade weakness to rate-cut uncertainty, have not disappeared.
One chart shows investors picking sides in the AI trade. After Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 1.15% ) launched its Gemini 3 model, “Team Google” stocks surged, led by Broadcom $AVGO ( ▲ 2.42% ) , Celestica $CLS ( ▲ 0.71% ) , Lumentum $LITE ( ▲ 1.09% ) , and TTM Technologies $TTMI ( ▲ 1.24% ) . “Team OpenAI” lagged, with Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.53% ) , Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 0.48% ) , SoftBank $SFTBY ( ▲ 6.48% ) , Oracle $ORCL ( ▲ 1.52% ) , AMD $AMD ( ▲ 0.92% ) , and CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 2.97% ) slipping. The decoupling suggests the AI rally might broaden beyond Nvidia as Google’s TPUs gain momentum.
Another chart highlights the revived odds of a December Fed cut, which have bounced back thanks to comments from Fed governor Christopher Waller and speculation that White House adviser Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to lead the central bank.
Breadth is also improving. The share of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving average climbed back above 54 percent after dropping to 47 percent earlier in the month, a sign the rally has widened beyond megacaps.
Insider buying offers another signal. The ratio of insider sells to buys on the NYSE fell from an extreme reading above 27 in October to 2.5 by late November, indicating executives are more frequently buying their own shares.
And the final chart shows foreign investors piling into U.S. equities despite tariff volatility, with a record $646.8 billion of inflows over the past 12 months, a stark rebuttal to the idea of a “Sell America” wave.
The takeaway: markets just survived their biggest reality check of the year, and the charts suggest the bull case is bruised but intact. Breadth is improving, insiders are buying, foreign flows are strong, and the AI trade is evolving instead of collapsing. The next few weeks will reveal whether this rebound has real legs or was just a holiday head fake.